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Upper Mississippi River System Hydraulic Model Update

Published March 11, 2020
Upper Mississippi River Hydraulic Model Graphic

Upper Mississippi River Hydraulic Model Graphic

Upper Mississippi River System, including Illinois Waterway

The development of a standardized and seamless flood risk management hydraulic model for the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) is an essential tool to understanding the risks that currently exist to the river communities and is a critical first step for the development of systemic flood risk management (FRM) strategy. The model is a tool to more accurately evaluate and communicate impacts of floodplain modifications that have occurred or may be proposed in the future. This new model will lead to better predictability and more consistent flood risk management.  The hydraulic model has been strongly supported by the five states, federal agencies, local communities and non-governmental organizations.  In fact, this is one thing a largely divided stakeholder group has collectively agreed upon in more than a decade and could serve as an important catalyst to development of a more collaborative and holistic FRM strategy for the region.  A Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model is proposed. This model would incorporate software improvements, navigation dams and the availability of period-of-record inflow data files for various model users. The updated UMR Hydraulic HEC-RAS model would allow for wider use for floodplain management on the UMR system in support of flood risk management and 408 Levee Modification studies. The HEC-RAS model would run unsteady flow hydrographs and provide a base condition to efficiently evaluate proposed changes to the system and subsequent transference of risk. It would replace multiple models currently in use, leading to better and more consistent flood risk management. State, county and the local community officials would have access to enhanced flood risk information to assist with community communication and decision making processes regarding land-use and future development in high risk flood areas. Flood planning tools are critical to proactively reduce hazard risks and invest in hazard response and recovery capacity. The community based flood planning would mitigate risk to health, safety and property posed by floods in order to protect life, property, the economy and lower the demand for emergency response activities.

Approximately $500,000 of FY16 funding was reprogramed to collaboratively develop, test and review this new hydraulic model for Reach 1 (320 river miles) from Lock and Dam 19 at Keokuk, Iowa (River Mile 364), to Thebes, Illinois (River Mile 44).  This increment of the model was completed and widely released for partner and stakeholder use in January 2018. It is important to understand that this was a model development effort, not a traditional USACE study authority which compare alternatives or consequences of courses of action.  Since this tool is likely to be used for future studies or evaluations, it was developed in a highly collaborative and transparent manner coupled with external expert reviews to ensure the greatest degree of trust, credibility and confidence from our partners, stakeholders and public. Broader application and testing of the model by expanded stakeholder groups may identify further refinements or enhancements. This new tool will serve to accurately and realistically predict changes in water movement and depth profiles in response to a variety of “what if” land-use variables. Such information is integral to the risk-informed planning, evaluation and decision-making processes.

The first reach of model development was well received by communities and stakeholder groups in the UMR. Three additional reaches of the UMR still need to be developed to fulfill the intent to have a standardized hydraulic model platform for the entire UMR.

$575,000 of FY19 funding was reprioritized and received to expand the model development to incorporate priority Reach 2 (219 river miles) ($350,000), extending upstream from Lock and Dam 19 at Keokuk, Iowa (River Mile 364), to Lock and Dam 11 at Dubuque, Iowa (River Mile 583), and Reach 4 Dubuque, Iowa, to Minneapolis, Minnesota ($225,000).  

Additional Information

Congressional Districts
Senators: Charles Grassley (IA), Joni Ernst (IA), Richard Durbin (IL), Tammy Duckworth (IL), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Tina Smith (MN), Joshua Hawley (MO), Roy Blunt (MO), Ron Johnson (WI), Tammy Baldwin (WI)

Representatives: IA-1 (Abby Finkenauer), IA-2 (Dave Loebsack), IA-3 (Cynthia Axne), IA-4 (Steve King), IL-1 (Bobby Rush), IL-2 (Robin Kelly), IL-3 (Dan Lipinski), IL-4 (Jesus Garcia), IL-7 (Danny Davis), IL-11 (Bill Foster), IL-13  (Rodney Davis), IL-14 (Lauren Underwood),IL-15 (John Shimkus), IL-16 (Adam Kinzinger),IL-17 (Cheri Bustos), IL-18 (Darin LaHood), MN-1 (Jim Hagedorn), MN-2 (Jason Lewis), MN-3 (Erik Paulsen), MN-4 (Betty McCollum), MN-5 (Keith Ellison), MN-6 (Tom Emmer), MN-7 (Collin Peterson), MN-8 (Richard Nolan), MO-1 (Lacy Clay Jr.), MO-2 (Ann Wagner), MO-3 (Blaine Luetkemeyer), MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler), MO-6 (Sam Graves), MO-8 (Jason Smith), WI-1 (Bryan Steil), WI-2 (Mark Pocan), WI-3 (Ron Kind), WI-4 (Gwen Moore), WI-5 (James Sensenbrenner, Jr.), WI-6 (Glenn Grothman), WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

SI - Special Interest

Summarized Project Costs

Estimated Federal Cost $1,690,000
Estimated Non-federal Cost $0
Estimated Total Project Cost $1,690,000
Allocations Prior to FY 2020 $500,000
FY 2020 Allocation $575,000
FY 2020 Total Capability 575,000


Major Work Item Current Year FY 2020: 
Expanding the model development to incorporate priority Reach 2 (219 river miles) ($350,000), extending upstream from Lock and Dam 19 at Keokuk, Iowa (River Mile 364), to Lock and Dam 11 at Dubuque, Iowa (River Mile 583) and Reach 4 Dubuque, Iowa, to Minneapolis, Minnesota ($225,000).